Moody's ups India's growth forecast, expects policy continuity after LS poll

Moody's Investor Service on Monday raised India’s GDP growth forecast and expects the country to remain the fastest growing economy among the G-20 nations in 2024.

"India's economy has performed well and stronger-than-expected data in 2023 has caused us to raise our 2024 growth estimate to 6.8 per cent from 6.1 per cent," Moody's said.

The upward revision comes on the back of the 8.4 per cent growth clocked by the Indian economy in the October-December quarter of 2023, its fastest pace in one-and-half years.

Moody’s said it expects policy continuity after the forthcoming Lok Sabha election and a continued focus on infrastructure development.

The rating agency expects private sector investment to accelerate on the back of ongoing supply chain diversification benefits and the government's incentive schemes to boost key manufacturing industries.

Rising capacity utilisation, robust credit growth and upbeat business sentiment point to an improving outlook for private investment, the report added.

The global rating agency said high-frequency indicators show the Indian economy's strong third and fourth quarter momentum has been carried into the first quarter of the current calendar year.

The report states that "robust goods and services tax collections, rising auto sales, consumer optimism and double-digit credit growth suggest urban consumption demand remains resilient."

Expanding manufacturing and services PMIs add to evidence of solid economic momentum on the supply side, it added.

However, the Moody’s report does not expect the RBI to cut key interest rates as retail inflation is still above the central bank’s targeted level of 4 per cent.